SURVEY on the state of politics in the country carried out by a local research NGO, TWAWEZA, suggests that CCM is still the most popular party in the country and that many citizens do not understand the official status of the so-called Coalition of Four Opposition Political Parties, UKAWA.
Speaking at the launch of the results broadcast live on television, TWAWEZA Executive Director, Mr Aidan Eyakuze, said in Dar es Salaam that the results showed that more than six out of ten citizens (62 per cent) report that they feel closest to CCM out of all political parties.
“Furthermore, when asked which party’s candidates without reference to specific names they will vote for in the election, more than six out of ten citizens say that they will vote for the CCM candidates for president (66 per cent), parliament (60 per cent) and councillor (60 per cent).
This data suggest a return to a level of support for CCM last seen in 2012,” he remarked. In general, citizens are not well informed about the official status of UKAWA as a coalition.
Almost half (49 per cent) of the respondents think that UKAWA is a registered political party, which it is not. Even more (57 per cent) think that the name ‘UKAWA’ will appear on their ballot papers.
“This may add an element of uncertainty around the reaction of voters on election day -- unless the campaigns and voter education serve to correct these misperceptions,” Mr Eyakuze pointed out.
CHADEMA continues to be the second most popular party by a significant margin when compared to other opposition parties, according to the survey. There has been a slight decline in citizens reporting that they will select a CHADEMA candidate for President, MP or councillor.
Apart from CCM and the parties forming UKAWA, only ACT-Wazalendo was mentioned by 1 per cent or more of the population in any of these categories. When asked directly to name the presidential candidate they would vote for, 65 per cent of citizens chose the CCM candidate, Dr John Magufuli, while 25 per cent mentioned theCHADEMA (and UKAWA) candidate, Mr Edward Lowassa.
The remaining 10 per cent of respondents chose from among the six other presidential candidates, refused to answer or were undecided. However, data collection occurred before some parties, including ACT-Wazalendo, had named their presidential candidate.
It is important to note that this data (collected in August and September) is not predictions of the election result. “What they show is that at the start of the campaign period, the CCM presidential candidate, Dr Magufuli, commanded a lead in terms of public opinion,” Mr Eyakuze explained. Support for Dr Magufuli and Mr Lowassa was analysed along certain key demographic criteria.
Respondents who are younger, better educated, males or lived in urban areas were slightly more likely to express support for Mr Lowassa than older, less educated, female or rural respondents who lived in rural areas who were slightly more likely to express support for Dr Magufuli than younger, better educated, males or urban respondents. However in all of these categories, Dr Magufuli was in front.
For example, 33 per cent of 18–29 year olds and 30 per cent of 30–39 year olds express support for Lowassa, as compared to 15 per cent of people aged 50 and over. Nonetheless 57 per cent of 18–29 year olds and 76 per cent of 30–39 year olds reported that they would vote for Dr Magufuli.
In terms of geography, 28 per cent of citizens in urban areas expressed support for Mr Lowassa compared to 24 per cent in rural areas. About 66 per cent of rural voters said they would vote for Dr Magufuli compared to 61 per cent of urban voters.
Other findings reported showed that citizens are most concerned about public services. Six out of ten mentioned health (59 per cent) among the top three problems, and almost half mentioned water supply (46 per cent) and education (44 per cent).
In all three cases, more people mentioned these issues than in the previous year. From 2012 to 2014, the problem mentioned most was poverty and economic issues, but this year this dropped from 63 per cent to 34 per cent.
This provides useful insight to candidates and parties – to understand where to focus their attention and policies in order to address voters’ real concern. An analyst from Change Tanzania, Ms Maria Sarungi Tsehai, said that the snapshot that the survey had showed was that ordinary people are talking issues that are affecting their lives and that it was something positive.
Ms Sarungi said that she found the issue of people not understanding the whole concept of UKAWA to be rather worrying and that the right type of education was needed to right this wrong adding that the survey had come at an opportune time when time was still available. The findings are based on the first call round conducted between August 19 and September 7, 2015, with 1,848 respondents.
At this point, the election campaigns were just beginning, with 8-10 weeks of campaigning still ahead. Respondents were selected using recognised methods of probability sampling as used by research institutions all over the world. The sample covers all regions of Mainland Tanzania.
Source: Daily News
Hakuna maoni:
Chapisha Maoni